基于三方演化博弈的伏季休渔制度研究

PDF(1679 KB)

中国渔业经济 ›› 2025, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (3) : 10.

政策研究

基于三方演化博弈的伏季休渔制度研究

黄锦辉，郭晓丹*，孙鹏

作者信息 +

文章历史 +

摘要

伏季休渔制度是保护渔业资源的有效手段，其作用发挥依赖于对各主体博弈策略的探究。本文基于有限理性假设，使用演化博弈模型构建博弈矩阵，分析有无上级政府介入情况下制度落实的差异化均衡，并进行仿真分析。研究显示：（1）无外部干预时，渔民与地方政府无法自行演化至最优稳定策略；（2）上级政府在特定条件下介入监管可促使渔民和地方政府积极落实休渔制度；（3）地方经济增长压力和渔民预期收入损失是制度落实的主要制约因素。伏季休渔制度的可持续实施需依托上级政府主导的强互惠型激励机制，通过平衡生态保护与渔民生计、降低监管成本及优化政策环境，实现多方协同治理。

Abstract

The summer fishing moratorium system is an effective means to protect fishery resources, and its function depends on the exploration of the game strategy of each subject. Based on the hypothesis of bounded rationality, this paper uses evolutionary game model to construct game matrix, analyzes the differentiated equilibrium of system implementation with or without the intervention of superior government, and carries out simulation analysis. The results show that: 1) Without external intervention, fishermen and local governments cannot evolve to the optimal stability strategy; 2) The intervention and supervision of the superior government under specific conditions can encourage fishermen and local governments to actively implement the fishing moratorium system; 3) The pressure of local economic growth and the expected income loss of fishermen are the main constraints to the implementation of the system.The sustainable implementation of the summer fishing moratorium system needs to rely on a strong reciprocal incentive mechanism led by the superior government. By balancing ecological protection and fishermen's livelihoods, reducing supervision costs and optimizing the policy environment, multi-party collaborative governance can be achieved.

导出引用

黄锦辉, 郭晓丹, 孙鹏. 基于三方演化博弈的伏季休渔制度研究[J]. 中国渔业经济. 2025, 43(3): 10

中图分类号： F326.401

参考文献

[1] Mc Connel,K.E.and Norton,V.J.An Evaluation of Limited Entry and Alternative Management Schemes, in Limited Entey as a Fishery Management Tool[M].Washington Sea Grant Publication,188-201.

[2] Anderson,L.G:The Economics of Fisheries Management[M].London:Johns Hopkis,1986,195.

[3] Tierenberg,H.Thomas.Envioronmental and Nature Recource Economics[M].New York,Haiper Collins,1992,319-325.

[4] Cueff,Jean-Claude.Fishing Vessel Capacity Management Public Buy-out Schemes:Community Experience through the Multi-Annual Guidance Programmes and Ways Forward.International Workshop on Fishing Vessel and License Buy-Back Programs[J].2004(3):22-24,La Jolla,CA.

[5] Hannesson,Runvaldur.Buy-back Programs for Fishing Vessels in Norway.International Workshop on Fishing Vessel and License Buy-Back Programs[M].2004(3):22-24,La Jolla,CA.

[6] Greenpeace,Status quo and Enlightenment of marine juvenile miscellaneous fish fishing in China[R].Ocean and Fisheries-aquatic frontier.2017:63–67.

[7] Y.Wang,L.Duan,S.Li,Z.Zeng,P.Failler,Modeling the effect of the seasonal fishing moratorium on the Pearl River Estuary using ecosystem simulation[J].Ecol.Model.2015(312):406–416.

[8] Y.Su,G.Chen,Y.Zhou,S.Ma,Q.Wu,Assessment of impact of summer fishing moratorium in South China Sea during 2015-2017[J].South China Fish.Sci.2019,15(2):20–28.

[9] L.Yan,Z.Liu,Y.Jin,J.Cheng,Effects of prolonging summer fishing moratorium in the East China Sea on the increment of fishery resources[J].Mar.Fish.2019,41(5):513–519.

[10] S.V.D.Libre,G.A.K.Voorn,G.A.van,Broeke,M.ten,Bailey,P.Berentsen,S.R.Bush,Effects of social factors on fishing effort:the case of the Philippine tuna purse seine fishery[J].Fish.Res.2015(172):250–260.

[11] 牛文元.可持续发展理论的内涵认知———纪念联合国里约环发大会20周年[J/OL].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(5):9-14.

[12] 姜秀敏,王丹杨,卢治江.政治势能下休渔制度参与者行为选择的IAD分析——以Q市N码头为例[J].海南大学学报(人文社会科学版):1-13.

[13] 陈秋红.自然资源可持续管理的制度选择——理论与实践述评[J].中国农村观察,2008(6):67-77,79.

[14] 高强,高乐华.我国海洋渔业生态失衡机制与修复研究[J].中国渔业经济,2011,29(1):150-157.

[15] 朱玉贵,赵丽丽,刘燕飞.海洋渔业资源可持续利用研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2009,19(2):166-169.

[16] 曲亚囡,裴兆斌,杨斯婷.可持续发展视阈下我国海洋伏季休渔制度研究[J].海洋开发与管理,2018,35(9):17-26.

[17] 陈艳明,包特力根白乙.中国海洋伏季休渔制度研究[J].河北渔业,2010(9):46-50,56.

[18] 卢昌彩,赵景辉.东海伏季休渔制度回顾与展望[J].渔业信息与战略,2015,30(3):168-174.

[19] 郭文路,黄硕琳.关于我国休渔制度问题的探讨[J].上海水产大学学报,2000(2):175-179.

[20] Larry Samuelson.Evolutionary Games and Equilibrium Selection[M].1997.

[21] Jörgen W.Weibull;Evolutionary Game Theory,JOURNAL OF ARTIFICIAL SOCIETIES AND SOCIAL SIMULATION[M].Cambridge,MA:The M.I.T.Press.1994.

[22] A.A.Klis,R.T.Melstrom,Strategic behavior and dynamic externalities in commercial fisheries[J].Ecol.Econ.2020 (169):106503.

[23] Lehua Gao,An Yan,Qiaorong Yin.Marine Ecological Governance Under New Media Environment:Tripartite Evolutionary Game and Simulation Analysis[J].ORIGINAL RESEARCH published:18 July 2022.

[24] Ritzberger K,Weibull J W.Evolutionary selection in normal-form games[J].Econometrica:Journal of the Econometric Society,1995:1371-1399.

[25] 张嗣瀛.现代控制理论[M].清华大学出版社,2006[2022-09-07],5-3.

[26] Lili Ding,Mengtong Lu,Yuemei Xue.Driving factors on implementation of seasonal marine fishing moratorium system in China using evolutionary game[J].Marine Policy,2021(133):104707.

[27] 王覃刚.关于强互惠及政府型强互惠理论的研究[J].经济问题,2007(1):10-12.