大黄鱼不仅是我国东部沿海地区重要的经济鱼类,还是我国优势出口水产品之一。大黄鱼具有较高的经济价格和市场需求,研究大黄鱼价格波动特征对于了解大黄鱼未来价格走势和规避价格波动风险具有重要意义。论文选取了2015—2023年福建宁德大黄鱼300~400克和400~500克两种规格海面收购参考价的月度数据,利用X12季节调整法、HP滤波和ARCH类模型研究大黄鱼的价格波动特征。研究结果表明：大黄鱼海面收购参考价格波动具有明显的季节性特征和周期性特征;其价格波动具有集聚性,不具备高风险高回报的特征;300~400克规格大黄鱼海面收购参考价格波动具有信息冲击的对称性,而400~500克规格大黄鱼海面收购参考价格波动具有信息冲击的非对称性。基于以上结论,提出通过构建大黄鱼价格监测预警体系、建设全产业链信息平台和冷链物流体系等建议,以进一步推动大黄鱼产业发展。

The yellow croaker is not only an important economic fish in the eastern coastal area of China, but also one of the advantageous export aquatic products in China. Rhubarb fish has high economic price and market demand, and the study of price fluctuation characteristics of rhubarb fish is of great significance for understanding the future price trend of rhubarb fish and avoiding the risk of price fluctuation. In this study, the monthly data of the reference price of sea surface purchase of two sizes of Ningde large yellow croaker, 300-400g and 400-500g, were selected from 2015-2023, and the price fluctuation characteristics of large yellow croaker were investigated by utilizing the X12 seasonal adjustment method, HP filtering, and ARCH class model. The results of the study show that: (1)The reference price fluctuations for the purchase of large yellow croaker on the sea surface have obvious seasonal and cyclical characteristics;(2)Its price fluctuations are clustered and do not have the characteristics of high risk and high return;(3)The fluctuation of the reference price for the sea surface purchase of 300-400g size large yellow croaker exhibits symmetry of information shock, while the fluctuation of the reference price for the sea surface purchase of 400-500g size large yellow croaker exhibits asymmetry of information shock. Based on the above conclusions, suggestions are proposed to promote the further development of the yellow croaker industry by constructing a price monitoring and early warning system, building a full industry chain information platform and a cold chain logistics system.