本研究首先从出口总额、出口总量、平均出口单价、主要出口目的地、出口品类五个维度分析中国罗非鱼对RCEP成员国的出口现状,然后运用扩展的贸易引力模型测算中国罗非鱼对RCEP成员国的潜在出口额,将其与实际出口额对比,计算中国罗非鱼对RCEP成员国出口潜力并进行原因分析。结果表明,中国罗非鱼对RCEP成员国出口额与中国人均GDP、人口比重、地理距离、中国年均汇率、贸易国年均汇率显著相关。基于高平均出口单价和免税政策等优势,中国对大多数RCEP成员国展现出巨大的罗非鱼出口潜力。由此,本文提出提高出口质量、优化产品结构、减少成本、防范汇率波动风险及加强产业对接等发展建议。

This study first analyzes the export status of Chinese tilapia to RCEP member countries from five dimensions: total export value, total export volume, average export unit price, main export destinations, and export varieties. Then, it uses the extended trade gravity model to calculate the potential export volume of Chinese tilapia to RCEP member countries. By comparing it with the actual export volume, the export potential of Chinese tilapia to RCEP member countries is calculated and the reasons are analyzed. The results show that the export volume of Chinese tilapia to RCEP member countries is significantly correlated with China's per capita GDP, population proportion, geographical distance, China's average annual exchange rate, and the average annual exchange rate of trading countries. Based on advantages such as high average export unit price and duty-free policies, China shows huge export potential of tilapia to most RCEP member countries. Based on this, this article proposes development suggestions such as improving export quality, optimizing product structure, reducing costs, preventing exchange rate risks, and strengthening industrial docking.