在"双碳"目标下,深入研究我国水产品出口贸易中的隐含碳排放及其生产效率,不仅能够准确评估水产品贸易对环境的影响,而且对于促进我国水产品贸易的可持续发展具有重要意义。本文使用投入产出模型测算2007—2021年我国水产品出口贸易隐含碳排放量,同时考虑部分水产品的碳汇减排效应,进一步构建水产品出口贸易隐含碳净生产率指标;借助核密度估计法分析我国水产品出口贸易隐含碳生产率的演变特征与国别流向差异;使用LMDI法将我国水产品出口贸易隐含碳生产率分解为能源生产效率、对外贸易依存度与出口增加值效应三个维度研究其驱动因素。研究结果表明：（1）我国水产品出口贸易隐含碳生产率整体呈“小幅降低—持续升高”特征。存在国别差异,国别差异呈“大幅缩小—持续扩大—基本收敛”趋势。其中,我国对韩国的水产品出口贸易隐含碳生产率逐年高于其他贸易伙伴国。（2）我国水产品贸易过程中的碳排放水平已显著降低,但节能减排是以直接能耗降低为主,间接节能减排效果并不明显。（3）能源生产效率是我国水产品出口贸易隐含碳生产率的主要驱动因素;出口增加值效应的驱动作用微弱;出口贸易依存度对水产品出口贸易隐含碳生产率具有负向抑制作用。因此,提高能源生产效率,调整水产品出口结构,积极构建以国内大循环为主体的渔业新发展格局是提高我国水产品出口贸易隐含碳生产率的重要路径。
Abstract
Under carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, studying embodied carbon emissions and its productivity of China's aquatic product export trade can not only accurately assess the impact of aquatic products trade on the environment but also holds significant importance for promoting the sustainable development of China's aquatic product trade. This paper used the input-output model to measure the embodied carbon emissions of China's aquatic products export trade from 2007 to 2021, taking into account the carbon sink emission reduction effect of some aquatic products, and further constructed the embodied carbon net productivity index of aquatic products export trade. Subsequently, this study analyzed the evolution characteristics and differences in country-specific flows of the embodied carbon productivity of China's aquatic product export trade using the kernel density estimation method. With the help of LMDI method, it decomposed the embodied carbon productivity of China's aquatic product export trade into three dimensions: energy production efficiency, foreign trade dependence, and export value-added effect, to study its driving factors. The results show that: (1) The embodied carbon productivity of China's aquatic products export trade as a whole exhibits the characteristics of "'slight decrease - continuous increase". There are certain differences among countries, which show a trend of "'substantial narrowing - continuous expansion - basic convergence". And the embodied carbon productivity of China's aquatic product export trade to South Korea has been higher than that of other trading partner countries year by year.(2) The carbon emission level in China's aquatic product trade has achieved significant reduction, but energy conservation and emission reduction is primarily focused on the reduction of direct energy consumption, while the indirect energy-saving and emission-reduction effects is not obvious.(3) Energy production efficiency is the main driving factor for the embodied carbon productivity of China's aquatic product export trade; the export value-added effect plays a weak driving role; and the export trade dependence has a negative inhibitory effect on the embodied carbon productivity of aquatic product export trade. Therefore, improving energy production efficiency, adjusting the export structure of aquatic products, and actively establishing a new development paradigm of the fishery industry with domestic market as the mainstay are important paths to enhance the embodied carbon productivity of China's aquatic products export trade.
关键词
水产品出口 /
碳汇减排 /
隐含碳生产率 /
驱动因素分解 /
投入产出模型
Key words
aquatic products export /
carbon sink emission reduction /
embodied carbon productivity /
driving factor decomposition /
input-output model
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基金
本文受山东省社会科学规划研究项目“‘双碳’目标下出口贸易隐含碳排放脱钩效应及减排策略研究”（23CJJJ38）资助; 感谢本文匿名审稿人的宝贵建议,文责作者自负
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