保障水产品供给,筑牢粮食安全,防备极端状况下水产品供应危机至关重要。因此,了解不同源头所导致的系统性影响和传播路径,对于防范供应危机非常有价值。为此,本文选取2019—2022年的相关数据,运用级联故障模型对潜在的供应链雪崩效应进行模拟,并对危机传播的结构性特征进行详细分析。结果表明：（1）当比值r=8时,不同经济体作为危机源所导致的雪崩过程具有明显的差异性。（2）2019—2022年重要危机源的雪崩变化趋势呈现多样化的特点。（3）出度、出强度和中介中心性对水产品供应危机的动态传播有明显影响,入度、入强度和特征向量中心性则并不显著。（4）r=8的情况下,仅厄瓜多尔的水产品供应危机可以波及到中国。（5）空间邻近度在危机的逐轮扩散中影响显著,迂回感染是传递级联危机的主要途径,对雪崩过程有着重要影响。通过优化关键节点的进口结构、实施动态风险监控及多边贸易协作,以应对气候变化与地缘冲突引发的级联供应风险,从而增强全球水产品贸易网络的韧性与可持续性。
Abstract
Ensuring the supply of aquatic products, strengthening food security, and preparing for supply crises under extreme conditions are crucial. Therefore, understanding the systemic impacts and transmission paths caused by different sources is of great value for preventing supply crises. To explore this issue, this article selects relevant data from 2019 to 2022, applies a cascade failure model to simulate potential supply chain avalanche effects, and conducts a detailed analysis of the structural characteristics of crisis transmission. The results show as bellows. (1) When the ratio r=8, the avalanche processes caused by different economies as crisis sources exhibit significant differences. (2) The trend of snowball changes of important crisis sources from 2019 to 2022 shows diverse characteristics. (3) Out-degree, out-intensity, and centrality of intermediaries have a significant impact on the dynamic transmission of aquatic product supply crises, while in-degree, in-intensity, and eigenvector centrality are not significant. (4) Under the condition of r=8, only the aquatic product supply crisis in Ecuador can spread to China. (5) Spatial proximity has a significant impact on the successive diffusion of crises, and indirect infection is the main route for transmitting cascade crises, which has an important impact on the avalanche process. By optimizing import configurations at critical nodes, implementing dynamic risk monitoring mechanisms, and fostering multilateral trade collaboration, this approach addresses cascading supply risks stemming from climate change and geopolitical conflicts, thereby enhancing the resilience and sustainability of the global aquatic product trade network.
关键词
水产品贸易 /
复杂网络 /
供应风险 /
级联失效
Key words
aquatic products trade /
complex network /
supply crisis /
cascade failure
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基金
本文受辽宁省教育科学“十四五”规划2022年度课题（JG22DB421）、辽宁师范大学研究生教育教学改革研究资助项目（YJSJG202402）资助; 感谢本文匿名审稿人的宝贵建议,文责作者自负
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