渔业碳减排是渔业低碳转型的关键环节,而厘清渔业碳边际成本又是减排的重要一环。鉴于此,文章利用渔业碳影子价格模型估算2003-2019年中国28个省（自治区）的渔业碳边际减排成本,并进一步探究这些成本的演进趋势和影响因素。结果显示：从总体看,渔业碳边际减排成本呈波动上升态势,地区间边际减排成本存在显著差异,沿海远高于内陆;从动态演进看,核密度曲线呈下降且右移趋势,碳减排成本向高值区演化,高减排成本地区不断增加;从影响因素看,产业结构、能源强度、渔业发展水平、渔业规模、专业化程度对碳边际减排成本的影响显著为负,而要素禀赋和科技推广的影响则显著为正。据此,各省（自治区）要明确地区优势和特色,制定差异化减排政策以降低渔业碳边际减排成本,同时从技术支持和产业结构等多个层面发力,促进我国渔业全局性减排提效。
Abstract
Carbon emission reduction is a crucial link of the low-carbon transformation of fishery, and clarifying the marginal carbon emission cost of fishery is the most important part. Based on this view, the paper estimates the marginal carbon emission cost of fishery in 28 provinces of China from 2003 to 2019 using the fishery carbon shadow price model, and further explores their evolution trend and influencing factors. The results show as follows. On the whole, the marginal emission cost of fishery fluctuates and rises, with most provinces continuously increasing and a few provinces no significant changing or slight declining. There are significant differences in marginal costs between regions, and the coastal is much higher than the inland. In terms of dynamic evolution, the kernel density curve shows a downward trend and a rightward shift, with the carbon emission reduction cost evolving to the high value area and the emission reduction space gradually shrinking, the regional difference characteristics are enhanced, and the distortion of resource allocation is aggravated. From the influencing factors, the impacts of industrial structure, energy intensity, fishery development level, fishery scale and specialization degree on the marginal carbon abatement cost are significantly negative, while the impacts of factor endowment and science and technology promotion are significantly positive. Accordingly, each province should clarify its regional advantages and characteristics, formulate differentiated emission reduction policies to reduce the marginal carbon emission cost of fishery, and make efforts from multiple levels such as technical support and industrial structure to promote the overall emission reduction and efficiency improvement of China 's fishery.
关键词
边际成本 /
渔业碳减排 /
方向距离函数 /
空间杜宾模型
Key words
marginal cost /
fishery carbon emission reduction /
directional distance function /
Spatial Durbin Model
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